The latest report looks at “disruptors” in the air transport industry and their effect on forecasting. Was the A380 too late to the market? Did the shift towards smaller twin-aisles start already, enabled by improvements in technology?
Liquidity of aircraft is quoted as one of the main advantages of this asset class for investors. We are looking at the lessons of the last year’s Monarch and VIM bankruptcies to assess the impact on different aircraft types and ages. Are the ABS stress assumptions of three months re-marketing time realistic?
ABS market is growing in popularity since it has re-opened in 2013. We are taking a look at the last pre-Lehman ABS Airspeed 2007-1 and analysing its outcomes.
Potential value disruptions are coming thick and fast: Monarch bankruptcy has a potential to add even more spare leased single-aisle capacity to the market.
Alitalia’s bankruptcy – potential value disruptor The latest Italian flag carrier’s round of administration proceedings has raised questions of a potential bankruptcy resulting in the airline’s fleet disrupting an already fragile aircraft market. We are analysing the 100-strong fleet and its potential effect on the values – an increasing downward pressure.
A pause for thought. On the day of Oriel’s third anniversary we are reflecting on the year past and checking the potential of the year ahead.
BBIRD 2016 – analysing fleet and LTVs: While the prospectus quotes a cumulative LTV of 76%, Oriel’s Base Value suggests 86% and Market Value puts LTV at 95%.
Jonathan Wober from our partner company CAPA is analysing record airline profit margins but warns that upswings are not forever.
Single-aisle aircraft – ‘The Field of Dreams’: In the environment of low oil prices and airline profitability has the aviation industry become supply rather than demand-driven?
What fortunes with 2016 bring to the aviation industry and aircraft market in particular? We are looking at trends like the lease rate compression.
The 13th issue of the OrielVIP Report is looking into the reasons for peaks and troughs in the turboprop segment, which previously has “defied gravity”, and their effect on the market.
Following well publicised comments about the 777 market OrielVIP Report 12 takes another look at the widebody market. Potential overcapacity and the issue of FHA – the “marmite” product.
Fate of Transaero hangs in the balance after its acquisition by Aeroflot which threatens some 70% of Transaero’s fleet.
Aeroloft has released an RFP listing some 21 narrowbody and 20 widebody aircraft. How will this additional availability affect the aircraft markets?
The 747-200B was the most successful twin aisle of its generation. Its successor, the 747-400 lacked its luster. What does it mean for the 777-300ER?
Are the widebody value projections realistic or is the market up for a re-alignment of expectations?
Crystal ball gazing: The 2015 will be the peak of the value cycle. The question is, will it be Table Mountain or Eiger?
The single aisles, ‘the bread and butter’ for the lessors have been somewhat overlooked but it is time to review this sector from a residual values perspective.
Today we are comparing the CIT’s latest CAF3 securitisation with the earlier issues CAF1 and CAF2 issued in December 2008.
Today we are looking at the widebody aircraft recent manifest popularity. “We are actually looking to grow our widebody share”.